ValueFinder

Built

• ✓World Cup 2026 model live: Dixon-Coles Poisson + Elo blend, 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations across all 48 teams and the full bracket — power rankings, group-stage qualify probabilities, and fixture odds
• ✓Golf V2 live: true 5-event rolling SG, real Pinnacle closing odds pipeline, weight-optimised via logistic regression on 14k player-events — 77% CLV rate across 31 selections
• ✓Golf V2: blend reduced from 60/40 to 90/10 VF/DG after grid search showed DG was suppressing alpha; sg_t2g replaces sg_app as primary ball-striking signal
• ✓Golf V2: full historical backtest (2020–2025, 135 events, train/validate split) with real Pinnacle odds and settled outcomes
• ✓Football model: Poisson xG framework, full label and conviction scoring — 100% CLV rate across 5 selections (season complete, resumes Aug 2026)
• ✓Golf pipeline fully automated end-to-end: Monday data refresh, Tuesday field fetch + model run, Thursday closing odds, and Sunday results all run hands-free via GitHub Actions
• ✓Pipeline health dashboard live at /status — real-time step tiles, error tracking, and week-status for both models
• ✓Both models publish weekly to Substack; dual-sport web app live on Vercel

Next

• ·Golf: real top-10/20 odds — currently estimated; evaluate DataGolf paid tiers for live and historical Pinnacle prices
• ·Golf: calibration review — CLV/ROI breakdown by odds band and gap size to identify where model edge is strongest
• ·Golf: narrative overlay audit — 10 weeks of data, identify which codes correlate with positive CLV
• ·Football: re-enable workflows for 2026–27 Premier League season (August 2026)
• ·Football: BTTS market once a reliable odds source is identified
• ·B2B API: Flask endpoint serving existing JSON output, operator outreach