World Cup 2026 · Monte Carlo Model
World Cup 2026
50,000 simulations · generated 2026-06-09 · 48 teams
72 fixtures
12 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group A · MD1
🇲🇽Mexico
1.68 – 0.72
xG
South Africa🇿🇦
59%26%15%
O2.5 43%BTTS 43%
12 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group B · MD1
🇨🇦Canada
1.32 – 1.12
xG
Bosnia🇧🇦
40%30%30%
O2.5 44%BTTS 51%
12 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group A · MD1
🇰🇷South Korea
1.22 – 1.19
xG
Czechia🇨🇿
36%30%34%
O2.5 43%BTTS 50%
12 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group B · MD1
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.63 – 0.71
xG
Qatar🇶🇦
58%27%15%
O2.5 42%BTTS 42%
13 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group C · MD1
🇧🇷Brazil
1.45 – 0.89
xG
Morocco🇲🇦
49%29%22%
O2.5 41%BTTS 46%
13 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group D · MD1
🇺🇸USA
1.47 – 1.02
xG
Paraguay🇵🇾
46%29%25%
O2.5 45%BTTS 50%
13 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group C · MD1
🇭🇹Haiti
0.66 – 1.73
xG
Scotland🏴
13%25%62%
O2.5 43%BTTS 41%
13 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group D · MD1
🇦🇺Australia
0.98 – 1.48
xG
Turkey🇹🇷
24%29%48%
O2.5 45%BTTS 49%
14 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group E · MD1
🇩🇪Germany
1.68 – 0.92
xG
Ivory Coast🇨🇮
54%26%19%
O2.5 48%BTTS 50%
14 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group F · MD1
🇳🇱Netherlands
1.76 – 0.74
xG
Tunisia🇹🇳
61%25%14%
O2.5 46%BTTS 44%
14 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group E · MD1
🇪🇨Ecuador
1.97 – 0.51
xG
Curacao🇨🇼
71%21%8%
O2.5 45%BTTS 35%
14 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group F · MD1
🇸🇪Sweden
1.20 – 1.25
xG
Japan🇯🇵
34%30%36%
O2.5 44%BTTS 51%
15 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group G · MD1
🇧🇪Belgium
1.51 – 0.93
xG
Egypt🇪🇬
50%28%22%
O2.5 44%BTTS 49%
15 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group H · MD1
🇪🇸Spain
2.35 – 0.44
xG
Cape Verde🇨🇻
80%16%5%
O2.5 53%BTTS 33%
15 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group G · MD1
🇮🇷Iran
1.47 – 0.78
xG
New Zealand🇳🇿
52%29%19%
O2.5 39%BTTS 43%
15 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group H · MD1
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
0.74 – 1.69
xG
Uruguay🇺🇾
15%26%59%
O2.5 44%BTTS 44%
16 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group I · MD1
🇫🇷France
2.19 – 0.47
xG
Iraq🇮🇶
76%18%6%
O2.5 50%BTTS 34%
16 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group J · MD1
🇦🇷Argentina
2.01 – 0.55
xG
Algeria🇩🇿
71%21%8%
O2.5 47%BTTS 38%
16 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group I · MD1
🇸🇳Senegal
1.11 – 1.36
xG
Norway🇳🇴
29%30%41%
O2.5 45%BTTS 51%
16 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group J · MD1
🇦🇹Austria
1.66 – 0.74
xG
Jordan🇯🇴
58%26%15%
O2.5 43%BTTS 44%
17 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group K · MD1
🇵🇹Portugal
2.04 – 0.56
xG
DR Congo🇨🇩
72%20%8%
O2.5 48%BTTS 38%
17 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group L · MD1
🏴England
2.08 – 0.50
xG
Panama🇵🇦
74%19%7%
O2.5 47%BTTS 35%
17 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group K · MD1
🇨🇴Colombia
1.84 – 0.67
xG
Uzbekistan🇺🇿
64%24%12%
O2.5 46%BTTS 42%
17 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group L · MD1
🇭🇷Croatia
1.72 – 0.72
xG
Ghana🇬🇭
60%26%14%
O2.5 44%BTTS 43%
19 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group A · MD2
🇲🇽Mexico
1.37 – 1.12
xG
South Korea🇰🇷
41%29%29%
O2.5 45%BTTS 52%
19 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group B · MD2
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.52 – 0.86
xG
Bosnia🇧🇦
51%28%20%
O2.5 43%BTTS 46%
19 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group A · MD2
🇨🇿Czechia
1.48 – 0.79
xG
South Africa🇿🇦
52%29%19%
O2.5 40%BTTS 43%
19 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group B · MD2
🇨🇦Canada
1.44 – 0.96
xG
Qatar🇶🇦
47%29%24%
O2.5 43%BTTS 48%
20 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group C · MD2
🇧🇷Brazil
2.38 – 0.42
xG
Haiti🇭🇹
80%15%4%
O2.5 53%BTTS 32%
20 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group D · MD2
🇺🇸USA
1.44 – 1.05
xG
Australia🇦🇺
45%29%26%
O2.5 45%BTTS 51%
20 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group C · MD2
🏴Scotland
1.01 – 1.32
xG
Morocco🇲🇦
27%30%42%
O2.5 41%BTTS 48%
20 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group D · MD2
🇹🇷Turkey
1.50 – 0.95
xG
Paraguay🇵🇾
49%28%23%
O2.5 44%BTTS 49%
21 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group E · MD2
🇩🇪Germany
2.12 – 0.53
xG
Curacao🇨🇼
74%19%7%
O2.5 49%BTTS 37%
21 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group F · MD2
🇳🇱Netherlands
1.48 – 1.04
xG
Japan🇯🇵
46%29%25%
O2.5 46%BTTS 51%
21 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group E · MD2
🇪🇨Ecuador
1.57 – 0.91
xG
Ivory Coast🇨🇮
52%28%21%
O2.5 45%BTTS 48%
21 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group F · MD2
🇸🇪Sweden
1.45 – 0.93
xG
Tunisia🇹🇳
48%29%23%
O2.5 43%BTTS 48%
22 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group G · MD2
🇧🇪Belgium
1.40 – 0.98
xG
Iran🇮🇷
45%30%25%
O2.5 42%BTTS 48%
22 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group H · MD2
🇪🇸Spain
2.27 – 0.46
xG
Saudi Arabia🇸🇦
78%17%5%
O2.5 51%BTTS 34%
22 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group G · MD2
🇳🇿New Zealand
0.88 – 1.42
xG
Egypt🇪🇬
22%30%49%
O2.5 41%BTTS 46%
22 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group H · MD2
🇺🇾Uruguay
1.76 – 0.65
xG
Cape Verde🇨🇻
63%25%12%
O2.5 43%BTTS 41%
23 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group I · MD2
🇫🇷France
1.63 – 0.84
xG
Senegal🇸🇳
55%27%18%
O2.5 45%BTTS 47%
23 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group J · MD2
🇦🇷Argentina
2.25 – 0.47
xG
Jordan🇯🇴
77%17%6%
O2.5 51%BTTS 34%
23 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group I · MD2
🇳🇴Norway
1.86 – 0.68
xG
Iraq🇮🇶
65%23%12%
O2.5 47%BTTS 42%
23 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group J · MD2
🇦🇹Austria
1.46 – 0.95
xG
Algeria🇩🇿
48%29%23%
O2.5 43%BTTS 48%
24 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group K · MD2
🇵🇹Portugal
1.89 – 0.67
xG
Uzbekistan🇺🇿
65%23%11%
O2.5 47%BTTS 42%
24 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group L · MD2
🏴England
2.01 – 0.54
xG
Ghana🇬🇭
71%21%8%
O2.5 47%BTTS 37%
24 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group K · MD2
🇨🇴Colombia
1.98 – 0.56
xG
DR Congo🇨🇩
70%21%8%
O2.5 47%BTTS 38%
24 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group L · MD2
🇭🇷Croatia
1.77 – 0.67
xG
Panama🇵🇦
63%25%12%
O2.5 44%BTTS 42%
26 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group A · MD3
🇿🇦South Africa
0.78 – 1.50
xG
South Korea🇰🇷
18%29%53%
O2.5 40%BTTS 43%
26 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group A · MD3
🇨🇿Czechia
1.11 – 1.39
xG
Mexico🇲🇽
29%29%42%
O2.5 46%BTTS 52%
26 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group B · MD3
🇧🇦Bosnia
1.31 – 1.03
xG
Qatar🇶🇦
42%30%28%
O2.5 41%BTTS 48%
26 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group B · MD3
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.43 – 0.97
xG
Canada🇨🇦
46%29%24%
O2.5 43%BTTS 48%
27 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group C · MD3
🇲🇦Morocco
1.88 – 0.53
xG
Haiti🇭🇹
69%22%9%
O2.5 43%BTTS 36%
27 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group C · MD3
🇧🇷Brazil
1.74 – 0.80
xG
Scotland🏴
59%26%16%
O2.5 47%BTTS 47%
27 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group D · MD3
🇹🇷Turkey
1.31 – 1.19
xG
USA🇺🇸
38%29%33%
O2.5 46%BTTS 52%
27 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group D · MD3
🇵🇾Paraguay
1.17 – 1.22
xG
Australia🇦🇺
33%30%36%
O2.5 43%BTTS 50%
28 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group E · MD3
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
1.61 – 0.79
xG
Curacao🇨🇼
56%27%17%
O2.5 43%BTTS 45%
28 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group E · MD3
🇩🇪Germany
1.30 – 1.22
xG
Ecuador🇪🇨
37%29%33%
O2.5 46%BTTS 52%
28 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group F · MD3
🇹🇳Tunisia
0.92 – 1.50
xG
Japan🇯🇵
22%29%50%
O2.5 43%BTTS 48%
28 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group F · MD3
🇳🇱Netherlands
1.50 – 1.01
xG
Sweden🇸🇪
47%28%24%
O2.5 46%BTTS 51%
29 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group G · MD3
🇳🇿New Zealand
0.66 – 1.81
xG
Belgium🇧🇪
12%24%64%
O2.5 45%BTTS 42%
29 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group G · MD3
🇪🇬Egypt
1.06 – 1.21
xG
Iran🇮🇷
31%31%38%
O2.5 40%BTTS 47%
29 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group H · MD3
🇨🇻Cape Verde
1.05 – 1.22
xG
Saudi Arabia🇸🇦
30%31%39%
O2.5 40%BTTS 47%
29 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group H · MD3
🇪🇸Spain
1.69 – 0.78
xG
Uruguay🇺🇾
58%26%16%
O2.5 45%BTTS 45%
30 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group I · MD3
🇮🇶Iraq
0.75 – 1.66
xG
Senegal🇸🇳
16%26%58%
O2.5 43%BTTS 44%
30 Jun · 18:00 GMT
Group I · MD3
🇫🇷France
1.57 – 0.99
xG
Norway🇳🇴
50%28%23%
O2.5 47%BTTS 51%
30 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group J · MD3
🇩🇿Algeria
1.35 – 0.94
xG
Jordan🇯🇴
45%30%25%
O2.5 40%BTTS 47%
30 Jun · 21:00 GMT
Group J · MD3
🇦🇷Argentina
1.75 – 0.79
xG
Austria🇦🇹
59%25%16%
O2.5 47%BTTS 46%
1 Jul · 18:00 GMT
Group K · MD3
🇨🇩DR Congo
1.02 – 1.28
xG
Uzbekistan🇺🇿
28%31%41%
O2.5 40%BTTS 47%
1 Jul · 18:00 GMT
Group K · MD3
🇵🇹Portugal
1.29 – 1.23
xG
Colombia🇨🇴
37%29%34%
O2.5 46%BTTS 53%
1 Jul · 21:00 GMT
Group L · MD3
🇬🇭Ghana
1.18 – 1.07
xG
Panama🇵🇦
37%31%32%
O2.5 39%BTTS 47%
1 Jul · 21:00 GMT
Group L · MD3
🏴England
1.48 – 1.01
xG
Croatia🇭🇷
47%29%25%
O2.5 45%BTTS 50%
Dixon-Coles Poisson · 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations · Elo + xG blend · Not financial advice.